Episode 79 · Deep tech · 58 min

Cheaper first, green second

Ninety-eight per cent of the hydrogen industry uses today is made with CO2-intensive power, and the incumbent steam-methane route emits roughly ten times more carbon than the hydrogen it yields. Verdagy's bet is that this flips the way solar flipped — not on conscience but on price, toward electrolysis below two dollars a kilo at scale. The hardware is a three-metre-square cell; 160 of them stacked like a deck of cards make twenty megawatts, or about eight tons of hydrogen a day.

MN
Marty Neese
CEO, Verdagy · with Vishal Krishna
Cheaper first, green second — episode thumbnail
57:33
Said in this episode
▶ 2:51
98%
Industrial hydrogen made with dirty power
Neese's figure for the share of the world's hydrogen produced for industry today using grid or otherwise CO2-intensive electricity.
▶ 4:24
10x
CO2 per unit of hydrogen, steam methane reforming
The incumbent route produces about ten times more CO2 than it does hydrogen — so growth in these industries today means more emissions by construction.
▶ 37:20
under $2/kg
Neese's unsubsidised target for electrolysis
Offered explicitly as personal opinion, at scale and with no incentives; his quoted numbers today are under $3 a kilo with Verdagy's approach against historically priced renewables and under $5 almost anywhere in the US.
▶ 28:12
160 cells = 20 MW
What one stack produces
Three-metre-square cells stood on edge like a deck of cards; 20 megawatts is roughly eight tons of hydrogen a day.
▶ 28:41
70,000 sq ft
Footprint for a 200 MW plant
Ten stacks, about 80 tons of hydrogen a day, inside a building under seventy thousand square feet — run by two small teams rather than hundreds of operators.
▶ 22:13
₹15 to ₹4
India's solar tariff per unit, then and now
The host's figures, which he converts loosely to roughly 30 cents falling to about 5 cents; cited as the precedent for what incentives plus scale did to Indian renewable pricing.
The brief

The argument in sixty seconds

Neese's claim is that green hydrogen will win the way solar won — on price, not on conscience. Ninety-eight per cent of the hydrogen industry consumes today is made with CO2-intensive power, and the incumbent steam-methane route emits roughly ten times more CO2 than the hydrogen it produces; fifteen years ago solar was not chosen because it was not the cheapest, and fifteen years later it is. Verdagy, spun out of Chemetry at Moss Landing in May 2021 with Neese as the last employee in, is building very large membrane cells — three metres square, 160 stacked like a deck of cards for twenty megawatts, ten of those stacks for a 200 MW plant inside under 70,000 square feet, every cell reporting a voltage that feeds a digital twin so a handful of people can run the site. His economics: under three dollars a kilo today against historically priced wind and solar, under five almost anywhere in the US, and in his personal view no reason it cannot go below two at scale without incentives — all before the Inflation Reduction Act's three-dollar credit, which in a single July turned a clear European lead into an American gold rush with not enough supply of anything. The Indian argument is sharper still: large integrated players already own the renewables and the transmission and are missing only the electrolyzer in the middle, and grid banking makes the country about as frictionless as it gets, where the US must be treated as several countries at once. Convert photons into ammonia, put it on a ship, and India stops importing energy and starts exporting its own sunlight.

Worth your time if you are

Industrial buyers weighing green hydrogen against grey
Indian renewable developers missing the electrolyzer in the middle
Climate-fund investors pricing hard-to-abate decarbonisation
Deep-tech founders scaling electrochemistry into plants
Policy watchers tracking the IRA's spillover into Asia
Episode map

Where the conversation travels

Every block is a chapter, coloured by what it's about. Click any of it to jump straight to that minute on YouTube.

01Cold open: splitting water for a living 0:00 Vishal reads out the textbook definition of water electrolysis before introducing Verdagy's CEO and the promise on the tin — the lowest upfront capital cost and the lowest unit economics for green hydrogen at very large scale. 02Green is the electron, not the molecule 2:18 Hydrogen counts as green only if the electricity splitting the water is green, and today roughly 98% of the world's industrial hydrogen is made with grid or otherwise CO2-intensive power. 03Ten times more CO2 than hydrogen 3:52 Verdagy's investor base is petrochemicals, industrial chemicals, mining and energy infrastructure — all hydrogen-hungry, all supplied today by steam methane reforming, which produces about ten times more CO2 than hydrogen, and all facing the same price flip solar delivered fifteen years ago. 04Who moves first: the hydrogen veterans 5:42 The fastest adopters are the industries that already handle hydrogen safely — petrochemical crackers and chlor-alkali producers with fifty to seventy years of hydrogen as a co-byproduct — which is why green ammonia announcements keep arriving. 05Cracking heat and the end of diesel 8:04 Refiners can substitute green hydrogen one-for-one for the natural gas heat that hydrocarbon cracking needs, and once hydrogen is cheap enough to compress, store and move, Neese expects long-haul diesel trucking to give way to battery-and-fuel-cell combinations within his lifetime. 06Out of Chemetry, with a $25M round 10:40 Chemetry spent a decade at Moss Landing shrinking the carbon intensity of vinyls feedstocks using very large membrane cells, realised the same cells could make hydrogen, and spun Verdagy out in May 2021 — a seed round then a $25 million A with Shell, Orbia, BHP, Caterpillar, TDK, Temasek, Khosla and Doral. 07July 2022 and the incentive gold rush 14:50 Until mid-2022 Europe was plainly ahead with its dedicated hydrogen backbone; then the Inflation Reduction Act's hydrogen incentives put marginal US projects in the money for a decade, and the same players who threw stones at solar are now going green for their bottom line. 08Four-rupee solar and exporting the sun 21:28 Against a US hub programme worth billions, Vishal points at India's solar tariff falling from about ₹15 a unit to ₹4 — and Neese argues India's integrated players own renewables and transmission but not the electrolyzer in the middle, the missing link that would let them ship sunlight abroad as green ammonia. 09Inside the cell: a deck of cards 26:40 A three-inch anode, a membrane and a mirror-image cathode circulating potassium hydroxide make one cell; 160 three-metre-square cells stood on edge like a deck of cards make a 20 MW stack at eight tons a day, and ten stacks fit 200 MW into under 70,000 square feet run by two small teams. 10Banking renewables, buying at the hub 30:15 India's grid banking lets a developer build solar anywhere and electrolyse elsewhere, while the US must be treated as several countries and rewards co-location; further out, non-discriminatory pipeline access turns hydrogen into a hub-priced commodity anyone can inject into or buy from. 11The hard questions: cost and energy 35:35 Neese takes the critiques one by one — under $3 a kilo with Verdagy's approach against historically priced renewables, under $5 almost anywhere in the US, a $3 credit on top, and his own view that unsubsidised electrolysis can go below $2 — then answers the energy-intensity charge with 'relative to what'. 12Safety records and the flight that's coming 41:00 Hydrogen's public image is the Hindenburg; its industrial record is decades of tanker trucks and chemical plants without headline incidents — and the next visible use case is sustainable aviation fuel, where Neese thinks the aircraft are ready before passengers are. 13From Flex to a culture map 44:40 Joining a team that had already worked together eight to thirteen years, Neese spent his first quarter observing the culture and then codified what he saw; behind it, twenty years in contract manufacturing running about 160,000 people, and a 2007 decision to stop pointing fingers at environmental problems. 14Two contracts and a financier 49:45 Ten electrolyzers make 200 megawatts, and financing them looks exactly like solar or wind project development — a renewable supply contract at one end and an offtake contract at the other, taken together to a lender, with EPC firms doing the rest. 15Ray Anderson, a monk, and the quiet 51:40 The book that started it was Ray Anderson's Confessions of a Radical Industrialist, handed to Neese on his first day at SunPower and read years later; the current one is Thich Nhat Hanh, which leads into a closing argument that mindfulness eludes most people and has to be actively chosen.
Takeaways

Ideas to carry out of this hour

01

Green hydrogen wins on price, or it does not win

Steam methane reforming has been the default because it was cheapest, exactly as fossil generation beat solar fifteen years ago; today about 98% of industrial hydrogen is made with CO2-intensive power, and the reforming route emits roughly ten times more CO2 than the hydrogen it yields. Neese's whole platform argument is that Verdagy is not asking industry to pay a premium for virtue — it is building toward the point where electrolysis is simply the cheaper input, so heavy industry improves its financials and decarbonises as a side effect. The stone-throwers who mocked solar, he notes, are now quietly building tens of gigawatts of it because it makes money.

02

The first buyers are the people who already live with hydrogen

Petrochemical refiners have cracked molecules with hydrogen for decades and chlor-alkali producers have made it as a co-byproduct for fifty, sixty, seventy years, which means the handling, compression, storage and safety culture already exist. The public imagines the Hindenburg; the industry sees hydrogen tanker trucks on roads in every country with no headline incidents. That inherited competence is why green ammonia announcements cluster in industrial chemicals, and why Verdagy's plants can be built by the same EPC firms that build chlor-alkali plants — the same shape, only simpler and safer.

03

One July turned a European lead into an American gold rush

Asked in June 2022, Neese says he would have called Europe the clear leader — a hydrogen backbone strategy, dedicated pipelines linking the EU to the Nordics and the UK, serious money and serious mind share. Then the Inflation Reduction Act's hydrogen incentives landed and immediately pushed marginal projects into the money for at least a decade, pairing gigawatt-scale renewables with electrolysis. The result is an incentive-driven rush in which there is not enough supply of anything to meet demand created, as he puts it, by a stroke of a pen.

04

The unit is dollars a kilo, and the target is below two

Paired with intermittent wind or solar at historic pricing, Neese puts Verdagy's production under three dollars a kilo, and says you could economically produce almost ubiquitously across the US under five. Add the production credit of three dollars a kilo and green hydrogen is solidly in the money against any other form — and that is before scale and before the technology has really started. His personal view, offered as opinion rather than a plan, is that there is no reason electrolysis cannot go below two dollars a kilo at scale with no incentives at all.

05

India's missing link is the box in the middle

Neese describes large Indian integrated players who already have renewables, and in some cases transmission and distribution too, with ambitions to turn photons into molecules — and a hole in the value chain where the electrolyzer should be. India's grid banking lets a developer build a solar plant anywhere and electrolyse somewhere else, which he calls about as frictionless as it gets, where the US forces you to treat Texas and the Northeast as separate countries. Couple that with integrated ports and green ammonia and India becomes a net exporter of energy — sunlight, shipped.

06

Scale here is a stacking problem, not a science problem

One cell is an anode about three inches deep, a membrane, and a mirror-image cathode circulating potassium hydroxide, four or five inches thick in total. Stand 160 three-metre-square cells on edge like a deck of cards and you have 20 megawatts, roughly eight tons of hydrogen a day; ten of those stacks fit 200 megawatts and 80 tons a day into under 70,000 square feet. Because it looks and feels like a chlor-alkali plant, the engineering, procurement and construction firms that have built those for decades can build these — which is why Neese expects deployment to go very fast.

07

Every cell is an instrument, so the plant runs itself

Each Verdagy cell is digital: it returns a voltage signal off the anode and cathode that feeds algorithms and a digital twin of the whole plant, so the operator can, in Neese's phrasing, ask a cell how it is performing today. That turns a hydrogen plant from something hundreds of operators attend into something capable of autonomous operation, where people intervene on maintenance cycles rather than babysitting machines. Eighty tons a day, on his description, needs a control room of a handful of people and an O and M room with another handful.

08

He observed the culture instead of writing one

Verdagy was an unusual startup: not two founders expanding, but a fully formed team spun out with assets and money, some of whom had worked together for thirteen years. Neese arrived as the last employee in and spent his first quarter watching rather than declaring, then codified what he saw into a culture map — holding a mirror up to a team that already had its ways of working. Headcount has since doubled against that same skew, on the theory that whatever a startup gets right at the outset is what it replicates as it grows.

The numbers, drawn

What the episode measures

Every figure below was said on air — timestamps included, caveats kept.

Conversation share

portion of the hour spent on each theme
Climate & energy · 28%Deep tech & hardware · 19%Manufacturing · 13%India macro · 12%Regulation & policy · 10%Unit economics · 8%
Climate & energy28%
Deep tech & hardware19%
Manufacturing13%
India macro12%
Regulation & policy10%
Unit economics8%
Computed from the chapter map of this episode.

What a kilo of green hydrogen costs

$ per kg
Verdagy + historic-p3US, broadly achievab5Neese's at-scale tar2
As stated in conversation, all as 'less than' bounds — under $3 a kilo with Verdagy's approach paired with intermittent renewables at historic pricing, under $5 almost ubiquitously across the US, and below $2 at scale as his personal opinion. A production tax credit of $3 a kilo sits on top of the first two.▶ 36:54

What a 70,000 square foot building makes

tons of hydrogen per day
One 20 MW stack8Ten stacks, 200 MW80
As stated in conversation: 160 three-metre-square cells make a 20 MW stack at about eight tons a day, and ten of those fit into under seventy thousand square feet for eighty tons a day.▶ 28:27
Worth keeping

Lines that stay

They figured out it was better to just keep quiet and go green — but not green for decarbonisation's sake. Green for their bottom line.

— Marty Neese ▶ 19:02

You used to think we can only use our renewables in India. Well, now you can export your renewables through molecules and send them elsewhere.

— Marty Neese ▶ 24:31

Each one of our cells is digital. It gives you a voltage signal off the anode and the cathode, which we then turn into algorithms to say: dear cell, how are you performing today? How can we help you?

— Marty Neese ▶ 29:09

Why would you produce ten times more CO2 than you otherwise have to, when it's cheaper and more profitable to do it this way?

— Marty Neese ▶ 40:42

There's not a comma after my name that says 'not for profit'. I'm a for-profit individual, because the best engine for transformation is to appeal to self-interest economically.

— Marty Neese ▶ 49:02
Clips that travel

Short on time? Start here

Industrial operators weighing a decarbonisation path

Why the first buyers already handle hydrogen

Cracking heat, chlor-alkali's seventy-year hydrogen habit, and the case that long-haul diesel gives way to fuel cells.

5:42 → 10:40 · 5 min ▶ Watch clip
Climate-fund investors and policy watchers

The stroke of a pen that started a gold rush

Europe's hydrogen backbone, the Inflation Reduction Act flipping US projects into the money, and the supply shortage it created overnight.

15:51 → 21:28 · 6 min ▶ Watch clip
Indian renewable developers missing the electrolyzer

Exporting the sun as a molecule

The hole in India's value chain, green ammonia to ports, and the argument that India becomes a net exporter of energy.

23:00 → 26:40 · 4 min ▶ Watch clip
Engineers who want the physical description

A deck of 160 cards that makes eight tons a day

Anode, membrane, cathode and potassium hydroxide — then the digital twin and the plant that runs with a handful of people.

26:40 → 30:15 · 4 min ▶ Watch clip
Anyone pricing green hydrogen against grey

Dollars a kilo, and the questions critics ask

The under-$3, under-$5 and below-$2 numbers, the tax credit on top, and the 'relative to what' answer on energy intensity.

35:35 → 41:00 · 5 min ▶ Watch clip
Glossary

The jargon, unpacked

Water electrolysis
Splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity across an electrochemical cell — the process at the centre of this episode.
Green vs grey hydrogen
Hydrogen is green only if the electricity splitting the water comes from solar, wind or hydro; grey hydrogen is made from fossil inputs, and covers roughly 98% of industrial supply today.
Steam methane reforming
The incumbent industrial way to make hydrogen from natural gas, chosen because it was cheapest — and producing about ten times more CO2 than hydrogen.
Stack
A row of electrolysis cells in electrical contact, stood on edge like a deck of cards; Verdagy's 160-cell stack of three-metre-square cells is 20 megawatts, or about eight tons of hydrogen a day.
Chlor-alkali
The decades-old industrial electrolysis process that makes chlorine and related chemicals with hydrogen as a co-byproduct — the source of green hydrogen's inherited plants, EPC firms and safety culture.
Green ammonia
Green hydrogen converted into ammonia so it can be stored and shipped in vessels the chemical industry already uses — the form in which sunlight becomes an export.
Inflation Reduction Act
The 2022 US law whose hydrogen incentives, including a production credit of about three dollars a kilo, pushed marginal electrolysis projects into the money and triggered a rush of demand.
Hub pricing
A shared hydrogen pipeline system with non-discriminatory access, where any producer can inject and any offtaker can buy at a published hub price — already emerging in Texas and north-western Germany.
Connections

If this resonated, go here next

Full transcript

The whole conversation, searchable

221 segments

Auto-generated captions, lightly cleaned. Click a timestamp to open that moment on YouTube.